Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Minister Pistarini International Airport in Buenos Aires will determine this market's settlement. The airport's weather station, located in Ezeiza roughly 25 kilometres south-west of the city centre, provides the official measurement source via Wunderground's historical database. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical listing issue rather than genuine forecaster consensus that no temperature will be recorded that day.

Buenos Aires experiences mid-winter conditions in July, with historical July highs at the airport typically ranging between 13°C and 17°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either the market has attracted no trading activity since launch or settlement mechanics require clarification among participants. Comparable winter days at the station show consistent patterns: cold fronts occasionally push temperatures below 10°C, whilst rare warm spells during southern hemisphere winter can reach 20°C or slightly above. The current pricing provides no meaningful signal about expected conditions.

Traders monitoring this contract should track southern hemisphere weather forecasting from the Argentine Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) as July 2026 approaches, particularly any unusual pressure systems or warm air masses moving into the Buenos Aires region. Winter weather patterns in the Southern Cone remain relatively stable, but the six-month lead time means current forecasts carry substantial uncertainty. Settlement hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical records for that specific station on that specific date, with no discretionary interpretation involved.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.