Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% implied probability, reflecting either a technical settlement state or minimal trading activity. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can purchase conditional tokens representing specific temperature bands, with payouts determined by the single daily maximum reading once the settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date.

Historical May temperatures in Beijing show considerable variability. The city's May average high sits around 28–29°C, though extremes have ranged from lows near 15°C to highs exceeding 35°C in recent decades. The 2023 May maximum reached approximately 32°C, whilst 2022 saw peaks around 31°C. Late May typically falls within Beijing's transition toward summer heat, making outcomes across the 25–35°C range plausible depending on atmospheric patterns and whether subtropical air masses penetrate northward.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts issued in the weeks preceding 26 May, as these provide the most reliable directional signals for seasonal positioning. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 will influence broader East Asian weather patterns. Additionally, the North Pacific subtropical high's intensity and westward extent during late May determines whether cooler continental air or warmer maritime flows dominate Beijing. Real-time forecast updates from major meteorological services typically become actionable five to ten days before the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.