Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting either a technical settlement issue or extremely low liquidity across the contract's conditional token buckets on Polygon. This pricing disconnect suggests traders have not yet committed meaningful USDC collateral to any temperature band, leaving the market effectively dormant until activity emerges.

Beijing's late May climate typically ranges between 25°C and 32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows temperatures on this date clustering around 28–30°C in most years, though 2020 recorded 34.6°C and 2015 saw 31.8°C. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects uncertainty about which specific range will settle rather than doubt that the airport station will record a valid reading. Traders should reference Wunderground's historical daily records for Beijing to calibrate expectations against seasonal norms and recent anomalies.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May 2026, giving traders until midday to position before Wunderground finalises its highest temperature figure for that calendar day. China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any official heat alerts issued in early May would signal whether conditions are tracking toward typical late-spring temperatures or an unusual spike. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for spring weather pattern announcements from regional forecasters in the weeks preceding settlement, as these typically drive adjustments in temperature expectations across East Asian markets.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.