Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, reflecting either a technical settlement lag or minimal trading volume on this specific outcome. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can purchase conditional tokens representing discrete temperature bands, with payouts determined by Wunderground's historical weather archive for that date.

Beijing's June temperatures typically range between 25°C and 35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows early June averages around 28–32°C, though 2020 recorded 37.3°C on 9 June specifically. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no meaningful market activity yet or uncertainty about whether this contract will attract sufficient liquidity before settlement. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket have shown that temperature ranges within 2–3°C bands attract more trading than narrower bands, affecting how traders should position across the available options.

China's meteorological agency typically issues extended forecasts 10 days in advance, with updates every 48 hours. Late May and early June 2026 will determine whether atmospheric patterns favour high-pressure systems or monsoon moisture, both of which significantly influence Beijing's maximum temperatures. Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's public forecasts from late May onwards, as these often precede observable market repricing on Polymarket. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 June, leaving minimal time for post-event arbitrage once Wunderground publishes the official reading.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.