Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and fall into one of several defined ranges. The current market pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature bands, which indicates either minimal trading activity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Polymarket has priced this contract on Polygon using USDC, with conditional tokens representing each temperature bracket; traders holding the winning range token at settlement will receive their payout based on the verified reading from Wunderground's historical database.

Beijing's June climate is highly predictable within narrow bounds. Historical data from the past decade shows early June temperatures at the airport station consistently cluster between 28–32°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 24°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to generate meaningful price discovery, rather than indicating genuine uncertainty about whether any temperature range will occur—a certainty that one range must resolve true.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for Beijing. Any unusual weather patterns—such as early monsoon activity or heat waves affecting northern China—would shift expectations toward higher ranges. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 4 June, so the highest temperature reading must be finalised by that point; traders should verify Wunderground's data publication timing to ensure resolution clarity.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.