Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0%, reflecting settlement uncertainty rather than an absence of heat—July in Beijing reliably produces temperatures exceeding 30°C. Traders are pricing conditional tokens on Polygon against USDC collateral, with the contract structure requiring precise matching of the day's peak reading to one of several predefined bands.

Historical July temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show consistent patterns: the past decade's July averages hover around 26–27°C, with daily highs typically ranging from 28–35°C. Extreme heat events pushing above 38°C occur roughly once every three to five years during summer months. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery, or traders are awaiting closer proximity to the settlement date before committing capital to specific temperature brackets.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include broader atmospheric patterns developing through spring 2026—particularly whether the East Asian summer monsoon establishes early and whether any Tibetan high-pressure systems dominate the region. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal forecasts by May, which could shift trader positioning. Real-time monitoring of June and early July 2026 weather patterns will sharpen expectations, as these months often indicate whether July will trend toward cooler or hotter extremes relative to the 30-year normal.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.