Highest temperature in Beijing on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Beijing airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently saying the relevant July 24 reading is expected to miss the agreed temperature range. Settlement is tied to the **highest temperature** recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station on the day, with positions held in **USDC** on **Polygon** and resolved through **conditional tokens** rather than an opinion on Beijing weather in general.

For context, July is normally Beijing’s hottest month, with typical daily highs around **31–33°C** and a climate that can still produce much hotter spikes in strong sun or before rain bands move in.[1][2] Travel guidance for the city notes that July can see highs up to **40°C**, but also frequent showers and thunderstorms, which can suppress the day’s peak and make outcomes hinge on the timing of cloud cover and rainfall rather than the monthly average.[2] In other words, a 0% price is only rational if traders believe the airport’s specific observation is very unlikely to land inside the market’s target band.

For a trader, the useful catalysts are the day’s local weather sequence, not any policy announcement: late-morning heating, convective showers, and thunderstorm timing can all change the maximum temperature before the settlement window closes. The main dependency is the airport station’s recorded high on Wunderground’s daily history page, so Polymarket users should watch the actual observation rather than broader Beijing forecasts, which may differ from the airport microclimate.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.