Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability across the board, reflecting either insufficient liquidity or a settlement mechanism that has not yet attracted trading interest. The contract resolves using Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, with USDC settlement on Polygon conditional tokens determining payouts based on which temperature band contains the day's peak reading.

Beijing's July climate is characteristically hot and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 32°C and 36°C during the third week of the month. The city experienced a peak of 41.9°C in June 2022 and regularly sees temperatures above 35°C throughout mid-summer. The 0% crowd probability across all brackets suggests traders have not yet engaged with this contract, possibly because the settlement date remains eighteen months away and the event itself carries no exceptional uncertainty—July temperatures in Beijing follow well-established seasonal patterns with limited year-to-year volatility in the 21st range.

Traders monitoring this market should track China's meteorological forecasts as July 2026 approaches, particularly any official alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric conditions. Urban heat island effects around the airport district and any infrastructure changes affecting the measurement station could influence final readings. The contract's resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical database accuracy for ZBAA station, making data availability and archive integrity the primary technical consideration rather than climate anomalies.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.