Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is set to experience its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station expected to record a daily maximum that will determine the outcome of this weather contract. The crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, despite July being the hottest month of the year in the region.

Historical data frames this near-zero pricing as potentially misaligned with seasonal realities, as July in Beijing routinely sees highs around 31–32°C, with extremes reaching 40°C in 2023 and an all-time record of 41.9°C recorded in 1999 [1][2]. The average daily high for mid-July sits near 31°C, rarely dipping below 26°C or exceeding 36°C, suggesting that a temperature outside the market’s range is statistically unlikely unless the specific range is set exceptionally low or high [3]. Traders on Polymarket are using USDC on the Polygon network to trade these conditional tokens, where the 0% implied probability reflects a consensus that the range is either too narrow or incorrectly positioned relative to typical climatic norms.

Key catalysts include real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which will publish the official highest temperature for the day once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC [1]. Traders should monitor the daily forecast from AccuWeather, which projects highs between 28°C and 37°C for July 2026, as deviations from this band could signal a mispriced contract [5]. Recent reports from Reuters highlight that China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, reinforcing the potential for extreme heat events that could invalidate the current market pricing if the range is conservative [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.