Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively assigning no chance to any outcome being the day’s top Beijing Capital International Airport temperature band at present. On Polymarket, traders post USDC against conditional tokens on Polygon, and the contract settles off the Wunderground record for Beijing Capital International Airport Station, using the highest temperature logged on 4 August 2026 before the window closes at 12:00 UTC. [13]

For context, early-August Beijing is normally hot rather than extreme: public forecasts for this date cluster around the low- to mid-30s Celsius, with model ranges from about 31°C to 36°C and several sources flagging humidity and rain as limiting factors on afternoon heating. AccuWeather’s August outlook puts Beijing’s daily highs broadly between 79°F and 90°F, while other seasonal guides place the month’s typical daytime maximum around 30°C to 32°C. [1][3][4][14]

The main trader watchpoints are the day’s realised warmth at the airport site, any midday cloudbursts or thunderstorms, and whether later observations revise the first published figure before the market’s source locks. Wunderground’s historical page is the settlement source, so the relevant question is not citywide heat alone but the specific airport station reading; that makes runway-level observation timing and any late data updates the critical mechanics for holders of YES or NO shares. [13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.