Highest temperature in Beijing on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by whichever temperature band contains that peak reading in degrees Celsius. The Polymarket contract currently prices this outcome at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, reflecting either a technical issue with market initialisation or extreme uncertainty about which specific band will resolve in-the-money once the date arrives.

August temperatures in Beijing historically cluster between 25–32°C, with daily highs occasionally exceeding 35°C during heat waves. The city's summer climate is dominated by the East Asian monsoon, which typically brings humid conditions and afternoon thunderstorms that can suppress peak temperatures. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which this market uses for settlement, captures readings from the airport station's automated instruments and may differ from the Day High & Low summary section—a distinction that matters for edge cases where afternoon storms or measurement timing create discrepancies.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which will provide 10–14 day outlooks for Beijing. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the position of the Tibetan high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity affecting northern China—will influence whether August 16 falls within a hot spell or a cooler, wetter period. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 August, meaning final confirmation typically arrives within hours of local sunset in Beijing.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.