Highest temperature in Beijing on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by which temperature band the peak reading falls into. The Polymarket contract currently prices this outcome at 0% across all temperature ranges, reflecting either incomplete market participation or a technical artefact in how conditional tokens are being distributed on Polygon at present.

Historical August temperatures in Beijing show consistent patterns that traders should reference when evaluating the current pricing. The city's summer peak typically occurs in July, with August seeing slightly moderated highs as the monsoon season progresses. Over the past decade, August 14 specifically has recorded highs ranging from 28°C to 35°C, with most years clustering around 30–32°C. The 2023 August 14 reading was 31°C; in 2022 it reached 34°C. These precedents suggest the market's zero probability across all ranges is likely a liquidity or technical issue rather than a genuine forecast that no temperature will be recorded.

Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the specified resolution source—updates continuously throughout the day, with the highest reading typically locked in by early evening local time. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 14 August, as these often precede Weather Underground's final figures. The distinction between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section matters operationally; historical discrepancies have occasionally favoured the former by 0.5–1°C. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 14 August, giving traders roughly half the day to react to morning temperature trends before the window closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.