Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by whichever temperature range contains that peak reading in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, indicating traders are either awaiting historical data to calibrate their positions or the contract has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery on Polygon.

August represents Beijing's warmest month climatologically, with daily highs typically ranging between 26°C and 32°C, though extremes occasionally exceed 35°C during heatwave conditions. Historical records show that 11 August has seen temperatures vary considerably year-to-year; the city experienced a peak of 40.6°C on 20 July 2010 during an exceptional heat event, establishing the upper bound for plausible outcomes. Examining comparable August dates provides traders with a distribution of likely ranges: most years cluster around 28–31°C, with roughly one in five years breaching 33°C or higher. The reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary creates a technical resolution dependency that traders should verify before committing USDC collateral.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Pacific typhoon activity during peak season could drive cooler, wetter conditions, whilst persistent high-pressure systems from the Tibetan plateau frequently generate extreme heat across northern China. Recent summers have shown increasing volatility; the 2023 and 2024 seasons produced multiple days exceeding 35°C in Beijing, suggesting the distribution of possible outcomes may have shifted upwards compared to historical norms.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.