Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pricing **0% YES** right now, so the market is effectively saying there is no traded belief yet that Beijing Capital International Airport will log a temperature in the specified range on the settlement day. Because this is a conditional-token market settled in **USDC on Polygon**, the price reflects the crowd’s view of the Weather Underground daily-observations reading, not a generic city forecast or the headline high shown elsewhere.

For context, Beijing’s mid-August climate is typically hot enough that daily highs often sit in the low 30s Celsius. Historical August references put average highs around 31°C, with some years reaching the mid-30s, and recent weather histories show comparable August days finishing around 31–34°C.[5][10][17] That means the distribution is skewed towards warmer bands, even if short-lived cloud cover or rainfall can pull the realised high down. In other words, a 0% reading looks less like a statement about meteorology and more like a sign that no one has yet meaningfully anchored to a likely outcome.

The practical catalysts are the same ones that move short-dated weather markets: the latest forecast cycle, any rain or thunderstorm timing, and how quickly temperatures climb before the station’s daily maximum is printed in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table. Timeanddate’s Beijing forecast shows a sunny, dry profile with a high around 91°F and 0% precipitation chance, while AccuWeather’s current and monthly pages also point to lows in the 70s Fahrenheit and highs in the low 90s.[14][15][16] For traders, the key dependency is not the city average but whether the airport station records its maximum before conditions ease, since that exact observed peak determines which Celsius band the conditional tokens settle into.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.