Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature brackets, reflecting either sparse trading activity or a genuine absence of conviction among early participants. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's historical data feed for that specific station, which serves as the official reference point for temperature resolution across most US-based weather markets on Polymarket.

Atlanta's May temperatures typically cluster between 75°F and 90°F, with historical records showing extremes rarely exceed 95°F during this calendar window. The city's 30-year average high for late May sits around 82°F. Comparable May 25th observations from prior years provide the baseline: traders should reference Wunderground's historical archive for the station to calibrate expectations against actual recorded highs from 2015–2025. Anomalous heat events—such as the 97°F reading on 28 May 2017—remain statistical outliers but inform the tail-risk pricing in longer-dated weather contracts.

The National Weather Service's seasonal forecasts, typically released in April 2026, will signal whether La Niña or El Niño conditions favour warmer or cooler patterns across the Southeast. Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlooks starting in March. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions settle in USDC once the Wunderground data is finalised post-12:00 UTC on 25 May, creating a hard deadline for arbitrage between spot forecasts and market prices in the final hours before settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.