Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0%, reflecting the settlement window closing at midday on that date—before the daily high is typically established in Atlanta. This timing constraint means traders are pricing uncertainty around whether sufficient data will be available before resolution, not the underlying meteorological event itself. On Polygon, this conditional token structure allows traders to hold USDC-denominated positions across temperature brackets, with payouts determined by Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station.

Atlanta's July temperatures cluster reliably between 88°F and 95°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching 96–98°F during heat waves. The National Weather Service records show that mid-to-late July typically sits near the peak of summer intensity, though the city's urban heat island effect and afternoon thunderstorm patterns create daily volatility. Comparable years—particularly 2019 and 2022—saw July 27th highs in the low-to-mid 90s, establishing a baseline for evaluating which temperature bracket holds genuine probability mass.

Traders monitoring this contract should track National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which will indicate whether an Atlantic ridge or tropical moisture pattern dominates that week. The 12:00 UTC settlement window creates practical constraints; if cloud cover or storms delay the afternoon high until after midday, resolution data gaps could emerge. Historical precedent suggests Wunderground's KATL station records reliably capture daily extremes, but the early close time remains the primary driver of current market pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.