Highest temperature in Ankara on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this contract at a **0% YES** chance, with settlement tied to the highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport station on 27 July and paid out in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. In plain weather terms, the market is asking whether Ankara’s airport maximum will land in the target range when Wunderground logs the day’s top reading.

The historical frame points to a city that is hot but not uniformly extreme in July. Ankara’s typical July daytime high is about **31°C**, with very low average rain chances and long periods of sunshine, which means the market is mainly about heat persistence rather than storm-driven volatility.[1] A 0% quote suggests traders are treating the contract as effectively unresolved only if the relevant temperature band has become unavailable, or they are pricing an outcome they regard as near-certain against the listed range.

For a trader, the key catalysts are the day’s forecast trajectory, the timing of peak heat at the airport station, and any operational issues around the source feed. In practice, attention should stay on the hourly maximum forecast, whether local conditions bring dry, settled heat or an unexpected cooler airmass, and the exact Wunderground reading used for resolution. Since the market settles on a single station observation, small shifts in the airport microclimate can matter more than the citywide headline forecast.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.