Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport on 2 July 2026 is the real-world event determining this market’s resolution, with current crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% for any outcome above the lowest range. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect tight clustering around 33–34°C, assigning a 99% implied probability to the 34°C outcome[1]. Yesterday’s market for 1 July showed a frontrunner of 31°C at 100% probability, indicating a rapid temperature rise into the second day of July[2].

Historical averages for Ankara in July suggest daytime maximums of 29°C, with daytime temperatures usually reaching 27°C under low heat and humidity[3]. However, recent forecasts show daily highs ranging from 81°F to 94°F (27°C to 34°C), with an average high of 89°F (32°C), aligning closely with the market’s current frontrunner[7]. The 2026 Ankara NATO summit, scheduled for 7–8 July, may influence local weather monitoring but does not directly alter temperature patterns for 2 July[6].

Traders should monitor announcements from the Turkish Meteorological General Directorate (MGM), which reported extreme temperatures peaking in Ankara on 2 July 2026[10]. July is Turkey’s driest month, with average rainfall of only 17mm, intensifying heat across most regions except the Black Sea coast[4]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 2 July 2026, and resolution relies solely on Wunderground data for Esenboğa Airport, making real-time station updates critical for accurate pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.