Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Amsterdam temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, which means the market is effectively saying there is no consensus that Schiphol’s daily high on 31 July will land in the YES range. Because settlement is tied to the **highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station** on the day, the live trade is about the airport observation itself, not a citywide feel or a forecast for central Amsterdam. The market settles in **USDC** on **Polygon**, via conditional tokens, so the relevant number for holders is the final Wunderground daily maximum rather than any intraday fluctuation.

The historical frame is straightforward: Amsterdam’s late-July highs are usually in the low 20s Celsius, with typical monthly average highs around **22°C** and average highs on 31 July around **24°C** in the reference sets available. Recent and comparable July readings show that warm spells can push the city above **30°C**, but that is still well above normal and not the baseline outcome. That matters for reading a zero-price market: in temperature contracts, a 0% print often reflects a belief that the threshold is out of reach, not that the underlying weather is fixed or that an extreme is impossible. The broader Dutch climate context also shows that very hot days do occur, including national records above **40°C**, but those are exceptional rather than routine.

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any change in synoptic pattern over the Netherlands, and whether the warm air mass peaks during the settlement window before noon UTC. The market resolves from Wunderground’s Schiphol history page, so the key dependency is the airport’s observed maximum, not a forecast by a third party or a station in the city centre. On a day like this, the practical watchlist is the hourly Schiphol trend, cloud cover and wind shifts, and any late-morning convection that could cap the high; if the contract is still open near midday UTC, the final few hours are the only ones that matter.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.