Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is expected to record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market currently pricing any outcome above the lowest range at zero per cent. The contract settles on-chain via USDC on Polygon, using conditional tokens to track the specific Celsius bracket that captures the day’s highest reading at the Schiphol station.

Historically, mid-July in Amsterdam rarely exceeds 28°C, with the 2019 heatwave pushing the airport to 33.6°C and 2022 reaching 31.3°C; however, the current 0% implied probability suggests the crowd anticipates a cool, cloudy day well below those extremes. Such a flat price often reflects a lack of atmospheric forcing—no strong southerly flow or high-pressure ridge—making a record-breaking spike unlikely based on recent seasonal patterns.

Traders should monitor the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) daily updates for any sudden shifts in the 850 hPa temperature or wind direction over the Netherlands, as these are the primary drivers of heat spikes. The Met Office’s latest summer outlook, published last week, notes a persistent Atlantic influence this month, which typically suppresses extreme highs [1]. With settlement fixed at 12:00 Z on 16 July, any late-morning forecast revision could materially alter on-chain pricing before the window closes.

[1] Met Office, "Summer 2026 Outlook", published July 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.