Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Schiphol Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature ranges, a technical artefact common in newly-listed weather contracts where initial liquidity has not yet formed on Polygon. This suggests traders have not yet committed USDC to conditional tokens representing specific temperature bands, leaving the market effectively unpriced rather than indicating genuine certainty about the outcome.

Historical August temperatures at Schiphol show considerable variability. The station recorded 32.6°C on 14 August 2003 during Europe's exceptional heat wave, whilst typical August highs cluster between 21–24°C. The 30-year average for mid-August sits around 22°C, though the range between the 10th and 90th percentile spans roughly 18–27°C. Recent summers have trended warmer; 2022 and 2023 both saw multiple days exceeding 30°C in August, establishing that extreme readings remain plausible rather than historical outliers.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates from mid-July onwards, particularly from KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) and Météo-France, which provide the most granular regional models for the Netherlands. Any significant Atlantic blocking pattern or heat dome formation over continental Europe in early August would shift probability substantially towards higher temperature ranges. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than summary figures—means traders should familiarise themselves with Schiphol's specific sensor placement and historical recording practices to assess potential measurement variance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.