# of views of next MrBeast gaming video on day 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The next YouTube video from MrBeast Gaming is expected to arrive this Saturday at noon Eastern, following the channel’s strict weekly cadence, yet the market currently prices a 0% chance of hitting any strike bracket. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token settled in USDC on the Polygon network, where the zero probability reflects a deep scepticism that the video will be posted before the settlement deadline of 21 June 2026, rather than a doubt about the channel’s typical viewership power.

Historically, MrBeast Gaming’s Saturday uploads consistently breach 10 million views within 24 hours, with recent gaming challenges like the $100 million car video sustaining over 120 million views in the first day, suggesting the 0% price is an anomaly driven by timing risk rather than content quality. The channel’s schedule, confirmed on its official YouTube page, mandates a new video every Saturday, meaning the only barrier to a strike is the video’s failure to appear before the 30 June 2026 cutoff, a scenario that has never occurred in the channel’s operational history.

Traders should monitor MrBeast’s official Twitter for any pre-announcement of a delayed upload, as the channel has never deviated from its Saturday noon Eastern slot, and watch for any news regarding Prime Video’s Beast Games Season 2, which concluded its finale on 25 February 2026, potentially freeing resources for a new gaming video. A recent Yahoo Entertainment report on the Beast Games release schedule confirms the series’ hybrid model ended in February, removing a major dependency that previously delayed MrBeast Gaming’s content, while the channel’s own page reiterates the unwavering Saturday upload rule.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.