2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **2026 U.S. Open cut** contract at **0% YES** on USDC-margined, Polygon-settled conditional tokens, so the market is effectively saying the listed player is no longer expected to finish inside the weekend field. The event itself is the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, New York, where only the top 60 and ties make the cut, and the market settles on whether the player is officially through once the cut is posted. [1][7]

That zero reading is at odds with the live tournament structure, where the cut is still a moving target until scoring is finalised. Recent reporting has put the projected line around **four over par**, with DataGolf assigning that outcome a strong likelihood, and earlier previews at Shinnecock have noted how punishing the venue can be for players hovering near the number. In practical terms, a 0% market price usually reflects an on-chain view that the relevant player is either already out of contention or has little realistic route to the weekend, rather than a broad view on the championship itself. [1][2][9]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Friday finishing order, official USGA cut confirmation, and any rule-based disqualifications or withdrawals that could make weekend qualification impossible before the settlement window closes on 21 June. The official U.S. Open site is carrying live coverage and scoring, while late-day score swings can still move the cut line sharply when several groups are finishing together. If the player is not safely inside the top 60 and ties when play ends, the conditional token will resolve against YES regardless of pre-round optimism. [2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.