Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump resigning or being removed from the presidency before 31 July 2026 remains a remote possibility, with Polymarket pricing this contract at just 1% implied probability today. On-chain, the market trades conditional tokens on the Polygon network using USDC, where buyers speculate on the outcome while sellers provide liquidity against the event occurring. The settlement window closes at 23:59 ET on 31 July 2026, and any formal announcement of resignation or removal before that date resolves the market to "Yes" immediately, regardless of when the change takes effect.

Historically, permanent removal of a US president has been exceptionally rare; only Andrew Johnson narrowly avoided it in 1868 by a single Senate vote, and no president has ever been successfully removed via impeachment or the 25th Amendment. While Kalshi recently estimated Trump’s impeachment and removal probability at nearly 28.7% for his second term, this reflects a broader political climate rather than a near-term certainty of actual removal [1]. The 25th Amendment allows temporary invocation for incapacity, but market rules require permanent removal, making temporary scenarios like Section 3 or 4 insufficient for a "Yes" resolution [5].

Traders should monitor Democratic legislative schedules, particularly any House efforts to advance removal measures before the March 31 deadline, though reports claiming Democrats are "two votes away" remain unconfirmed speculation [2]. Key catalysts include formal announcements from the Vice President or Cabinet regarding incapacity, as well as congressional votes requiring a two-thirds majority in both chambers [5]. Recent calls by Democrats to remove Trump over his Iran threats highlight growing political pressure, yet no official floor vote has materialised [4]. With Republicans retaining majorities in both chambers, the structural barrier to removal remains high, keeping the 1% probability grounded in current political realities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.