Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Strasbourg first-round contract at 0% YES, which means the market is effectively saying there is no live probability left on Shuai Zhang advancing in the on-chain USDC/Polygon position. For a user holding conditional tokens, the relevant question is not the scoreline now but whether the match has already been resolved in the underlying event feed and whether any settlement edge case remains inside the seven-day window. The market still pays out on the official outcome logic, so a completed win for either player, or a no-contest-style delay beyond the deadline, matters more than the pre-match listing did.

The sharp move to zero is consistent with the match already going the way of the non-YES side, rather than a genuine pre-start upset in market expectations. Comparable Polymarket tennis contracts tend to collapse to one side once a result is effectively known, while still leaving a narrow path for 50-50 only if the fixture was not played, was abandoned, or missed the settlement window. That is why traders usually treat the resolution rules as part of the price: a straight retirement, postponement, or abandoned score can be as important as the listed winner.

For catalysts, watch for the WTA/Strasbourg order of play, official match completion notices, and any post-match correction from the tournament or results providers, as these are what determine whether the conditional tokens resolve cleanly or fall back to the tie outcome. Reuters reported Strasbourg action was progressing normally around this stage of the tournament, but for settlement the key inputs are the official completed score and whether the match was fully played before the 27 May deadline. A late schedule change would matter only if it pushes the event beyond the market’s seven-day cut-off or leaves the winner formally unconfirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.