Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alana Smith Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mubadala citi dc open, qualification: lea ma vs alana smith stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Lea Ma and Alana Smith in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 3:15PM ET. This market…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Lea Ma vs Alan… on Kalshi UK
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