Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Marie Bouzkova to advance against Ann Li at effectively 100% YES, so the contract is sitting at the ceiling on conditional tokens settled in USDC on Polygon. At that level, the market is no longer expressing a margin of victory or set-by-set view; it is pricing almost no chance of an upset or a non-standard outcome before the settlement window closes on 28 May 2026. For a user holding the position, the key practical point is that the token only resolves on the match outcome as defined by the market rules, not on who looks stronger on paper.

That kind of extreme price usually reflects either a completed result already feeding into the market, or a very strong expectation that the match has effectively been decided by in-play conditions. Bouzkova came through to the quarter-finals in Strasbourg after Oleksandra Oliynykova retired, while Ann Li has been described in recent previews as the underdog despite competitive baseline numbers. In comparable WTA match markets, prices can pin near certainty when the favourite has already advanced in the live event or when the opponent’s path depends on a late medical or scheduling development.

The main catalysts to watch are straightforward: official tournament updates, live scoring, and any retirement, walkover, or delay notice from Strasbourg. The market rules matter here because if the match is not played at all, ends level, or drifts beyond seven days without a winner, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either player. Reuters and tournament feeds are the relevant sources for last-minute withdrawals or scheduling changes, while Flashscore and Sofascore are the quickest checks on whether play has started, been suspended, or produced a completed winner.

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Methodology

We track Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.