National Bank Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Bianca Andreescu

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Bianca Andreescu** as a certainty here, with the contract showing **100% YES** on the Andreescu side, even though the broader betting market has generally treated Nikola Bartunkova as the pre-match favourite. On-chain, that means the market is effectively paying USDC for exposure to a conditional token outcome on Polygon, and the settlement will track whether Andreescu advances from this National Bank Open match rather than any broader view on form or ranking.

That price is far removed from comparable pre-match reads. Independent tennis previews and books have mostly leaned Bartunkova, with market-implied win chances clustered around the high-50s to low-60s for Bartunkova and roughly 40% for Andreescu, while one preview still picked Bartunkova in three sets and another model gave her about 58%.[1][2][3][19] Against that backdrop, a 100% Andreescu price reads less like a live assessment of match quality and more like a contract that may already be fully bid up around an anticipated result or settlement assumption.

A trader should watch the official match status and any schedule changes from the National Bank Open, because this market only resolves cleanly if the match is actually completed; if it is cancelled, left unfinished, or pushed beyond the seven-day window, it settles 50-50 under the market rules. Tournament listings and live-score pages were still carrying the fixture as Bartunkova v Andreescu around the scheduled first-round slot, so any late court reassignments, withdrawals, or walkover-related updates are the main catalysts.[4][7][12][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Bianca Andreescu across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.