Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady

Platform comparison

Market context

Aleksandar Vukic and Liam Broady are scheduled to meet in the opening round of the Granby tournament on 13 July 2026. The match carries a 100% implied probability on Polymarket's USDC-denominated conditional token contract on Polygon, suggesting traders have priced in near-certainty that the fixture will proceed and produce a decisive result. The settlement window extends to 20 July, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before the market defaults to 50-50 resolution.

Vukic, an Australian ranked around 80–100 on the ATP tour, has demonstrated inconsistent form across hard courts and clay surfaces, whilst Broady, a British player typically hovering in the 150–200 range, has shown modest improvement on grass and clay in recent seasons. Historical precedent suggests that matches between players of this ranking differential—roughly 50–70 places apart—favour the higher-ranked competitor in roughly 65–70% of cases, though surface and recent form introduce meaningful variance. Neither player commands a dominant head-to-head record that would justify the extreme certainty reflected in current pricing.

Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any weather alerts for the Granby venue in the week preceding 13 July. Injury announcements or late withdrawals from either player would trigger immediate repricing, though the current contract structure means cancellation defaults to 50-50 rather than favouring either side. Recent ATP Challenger results for both players through June 2026 will provide the most reliable signal of current form; watch for any late-round exits or momentum shifts that might narrow the ranking gap.

Methodology

We track Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Liam Broady across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.