Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar

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Market context

The tennis match between Juan Bautista Torres and Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo at the Piracicaba Challenger has already concluded, with Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo winning decisively 6–3, 6–4 in the Round of 32 on 25 June 2026[2][3]. This market, which resolves to the player advancing, now carries a 100% YES probability for Torres, a clear contradiction given the match result and Aguilar’s victory[1][3]. In prediction markets, such mispricing typically stems from delayed data feeds or confusion over player names, as “Joaquin Aguilar” and “Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo” are often treated as distinct entities despite being the same competitor[2][7].

Historically, similar errors occurred in ATP Challenger markets where conditional tokens on Polygon failed to update after match completion, leaving prices frozen at pre-event levels until on-chain arbitrage corrected them[4]. Traders should monitor official ATP Tour score updates and tournament draw announcements for confirmation of Aguilar’s advancement, as any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would trigger a 50–50 resolution[4]. Recent coverage from TennisTonic confirms this was a first-time H2H encounter, with Aguilar’s clay-court form proving superior[7]. With the settlement window ending 2 July 2026, the market’s current pricing is indefensible unless the match was replayed or the result overturned—neither of which is indicated in official records[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.