Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez

Platform comparison

Market context

Pedro Martinez defeated Henrique Rocha 7-5, 7-5 in their Estoril Open match on 20 July 2026, confirming the outcome that the prediction market now reflects with a 0% YES probability for Rocha advancing [1]. The contract, trading on Polymarket’s Polygon chain in USDC, resolves to Martinez as the winner since the match was completed without cancellation or delay beyond the seven-day window [2].

Historically, prediction markets on tennis matches that have already concluded settle immediately to the actual result, rendering pre-match probabilities irrelevant once the event is finalised. In comparable ATP cases where a match finishes before the settlement window closes, conditional tokens resolve based on the official score rather than crowd sentiment, which explains the current pricing of zero for Rocha [2].

Traders should monitor the ATP’s official tournament ledger for any post-match appeals or disqualifications, though such events are rare in completed matches. No further schedule dependencies exist, as the match result is already recorded; the only remaining catalyst is the formal resolution timestamp on 27 July 2026, when the market will lock in Martinez’s victory [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.