Granby: Keegan Rice vs Arthur Gea

Platform comparison

Market context

The Granby Challenger match between Keegan Rice and Arthur Gea, originally set for 10:00 AM ET on 16 July 2026, has already passed its scheduled start time, yet the Polymarket contract for Rice advancing still trades at a 0% implied probability. This pricing reflects the on-chain reality that the event window is effectively closed or the match outcome is already determined against Rice, with conditional tokens on Polygon now locking in USDC payouts based on the official result rather than live odds.

Historical precedents in tennis prediction markets show that when a match date expires without a live update or when one player is heavily favoured in initial bookmaker odds, markets often collapse to zero for the underdog. In this case, Arthur Gea was the clear pick at 1.188 odds versus Rice’s 4.1, and Tennis Tonic explicitly forecasted a two-set win for Gea, a sentiment that aligns with the current 0% pricing for Rice advancing [2].

Traders should monitor the official ATP Granby results page and 365Scores for the confirmed match outcome, as any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would trigger the market’s 50-50 settlement clause [1][3]. With the settlement window ending 23 July 2026, the key catalyst is the final match report confirming whether Rice retired, defaulted, or lost outright, which will determine the USDC distribution across the conditional token positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Granby: Keegan Rice vs Arthur Gea across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.