Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling faces Andre Ilagan in a professional tennis match scheduled for 6 June 2026 at 12:30 PM ET in Tyler. The Polymarket contract currently prices Poling's advancement at zero, reflecting either extreme confidence in Ilagan or minimal trading activity on this fixture. Settlement occurs by 13 June 2026 at 16:30 UTC, with a seven-day grace period for delays before the market defaults to 50-50 odds.

Both players compete on the professional circuit at levels where match outcomes depend heavily on recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records. Poling's career trajectory and Ilagan's current ranking will determine baseline expectations; however, the 0% probability suggests either Ilagan holds a decisive advantage in their matchup history or the contract has attracted minimal liquidity. Comparable lower-tier professional fixtures on Polymarket typically see probability shifts once trading volume increases, particularly when players' recent results become available in the week preceding the match.

Traders should monitor ATP or ITF tournament announcements confirming the match remains scheduled, as cancellations or postponements beyond the seven-day window trigger automatic 50-50 resolution. Recent injury reports or withdrawal announcements from either player would move the contract sharply. The conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions settle in USDC only if the match concludes with a decisive winner; any retirement or incomplete play also defaults to 50-50, eliminating binary outcomes entirely.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.