Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively assigning no chance, at present, to Filip Pieczonka advancing over Harold Mayot. On Polymarket, buyers and sellers are trading **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the contract paying out through conditional tokens once the result is confirmed, so the price is the live consensus on who advances rather than a pure forecast of match quality.

That near-zero reading is best read against Pieczonka’s profile: he is primarily a doubles player, with a career-high singles ranking of **No. 739** and more recent rankings outside that level, while his record on the ATP/Grand Slam/Davis Cup level remains very limited[1][4][17]. Comparable lower-ranked challenger or ITF matchups can still move sharply if a favourite withdraws or the draw changes, but absent that sort of disruption, the market usually tracks the ranking and tour-level gap closely. Harold Mayot’s stronger baseline reputation in the Challenger tier is the obvious reason the contract has not been assigned meaningful YES probability, though the exact live edge depends on who is actually named in the official order of play.

For traders, the key catalysts are whether the match is formally scheduled, whether either player is withdrawn, and whether the event runs on time, because this market resolves to **50-50** if the contest is cancelled, ends in a tie, or is delayed more than seven days beyond the scheduled date without a winner. The settlement window extends to **2026-08-10T08:00:00Z**, so any late schedule change, retirement, or walkover matters more than pre-match noise. Official tournament updates and ATP draw changes are the practical signals to watch; in tennis, these markets often reprice only when the draw, start time, or injury news becomes concrete.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.