US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill

Platform comparison

Market context

US Open qualifying between Francesco Passaro and Felix Gill is trading as a near-certain Passaro advance, with the contract sitting at 100% YES on Polymarket’s USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token market. In practice, that price says the market is treating the outcome as already locked in rather than a live coin-flip, so the key question for holders is whether any official result changes that picture before the settlement window closes on 31 August.

That sort of pricing is most often seen when a match has already been played and the result is broadly confirmed, or when the market is slow to catch up to a completed first-round or qualifying-round tie. The relevant comparison here is the official US Open qualifying draw and schedule, which places men’s singles qualifying in the Fan Week window from 24 August through 27 August, with the Passaro-Gill pairing listed in the men’s qualifying draw and match reports showing Passaro winning in straight sets. That makes the contract’s 100% level consistent with a settled on-court result rather than an unresolved pre-match position.

For traders, the main catalysts are not form lines but admin: official score confirmation, any draw correction, and whether the match is marked complete in the tournament feed. The US Open schedule leaves little ambiguity in qualifying week, but market participants still watch for late retirements, walkovers, or scoreboard adjustments that can alter resolution mechanics. Under the contract terms, a match not played, a tie, or no determined winner by 7 September would push the market to 50-50, but a completed Passaro win should resolve to Passaro once the event data is finalised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.