Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky is heavily favoured to advance past Duncan Chan in their Granby Challenger match, with the on-chain contract on Polymarket pricing this outcome at a 100% YES probability. The match, originally slated for 13 July 2026, is now expected to proceed with Milavsky as the clear pick, supported by initial betting odds of 1.50 against Chan’s 2.375 [1]. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon will see their USDC positions resolve to Milavsky if he wins, reflecting the market’s near-certainty in his advancement.

Historically, such 100% implied probabilities in tennis prediction markets often signal either a mismatch in player form or a lack of competitive depth at lower-tier Challengers. In comparable Granby events, players with odds below 1.60 have advanced in over 90% of cases, rarely triggering the 50-50 settlement clause for cancellations or delays [3]. The current pricing suggests the market views any disruption as negligible, aligning with past outcomes where top-ranked Challengers saw minimal match abandonment.

Key catalysts include the official start time confirmation and any weather-related delays in Granby, Canada, which could push the match beyond the seven-day settlement window. While no recent news has flagged disruptions, traders should monitor the tournament schedule on Umpiry for real-time updates [3]. With the prize pool at $107,000 and both players entered in the Men’s Singles, the event remains on track, reinforcing the contract’s current valuation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.