Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 Winner | 56% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Match O/U 21.5 | 53% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Match O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce | 19% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to national bank open: nicolas mejia vs martin landaluce. This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Mejia and Martin Landaluce in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 2, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicola…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce on Kalshi UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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