National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Blockx

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Blockx contract at **100% YES**, which on the platform means the market is overwhelmingly expecting the match to produce a completed winner under the event rules. The contract is settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**, using conditional tokens, so traders are not just speculating on the tennis result in the abstract but on whether the match is ultimately recorded as having a winner for resolution purposes.[3][19]

The current pricing sits well above conventional sportsbook views, where Lehecka was generally listed as a clear favourite but not an automatic certainty: BetUS had him around **-180** versus Blockx at **+150**, while other books and prediction sites placed Lehecka in roughly the low-60s win-percentage range.[1][7][20] That gap matters because Polymarket contracts can be sensitive to settlement mechanics as well as form; a short-price market can still be vulnerable if the match is not completed, is abandoned, or is reclassified under the rules into a non-win outcome.[3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the tournament’s official status updates, any schedule changes, and whether the match actually goes the distance before the settlement window closes. The original listing put the match around **6:00pm ET on 6 August**, and live scoreboards showed it in play later that evening, which reduces but does not eliminate settlement risk from interruption, retirement, or unusual completion status.[4][5][18] The key practical check is whether the organisers recognise a completed winner, because Polymarket’s resolution turns on that outcome rather than on pre-match odds or in-play momentum.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Blockx across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.