Samsun: Paul Inchauspe vs Gabriel Debru

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently treating a Paul Inchauspe win as effectively excluded even though the event is still a live conditional token on Polygon settled in USDC. Because the market resolves on who advances in the Samsun match rather than on outright match quality, the key question for holders is whether the scheduled semi-final is actually completed and whether the advance is awarded normally or by walkover, retirement, cancellation, or delay beyond the seven-day settlement trigger.

The main comparable frame is that these markets often move sharply once a match is on court, then reprice again if the scoreboard, retirement risk, or scheduling changes. Public tennis data shows no prior head-to-head between Inchauspe and Debru, while both player stat pages point to a small sample size and mixed recent form, which makes a 0% print more about market positioning and event status than a settled consensus on performance. If the match has already started, traders typically watch whether the scoreboard source records a completed result or an unfinished one, because an in-play retirement can still decide the advance.

For catalysts, the practical checks are the tournament order of play, official withdrawal notes, and live scoring feeds confirming whether the semi-final is still pending or has been resolved. If the bout is postponed, a no-contest, or left without a winner past 7 days from the scheduled date, the contract’s fallback is 50-50 rather than a player-specific win. That resolution rule matters more than pre-match odds, because on-chain settlement follows the defined outcome path, not the most likely tennis result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Samsun: Paul Inchauspe vs Gabriel Debru across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.