National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Fearnley–Mannarino match at **100% YES** for Jacob Fearnley, which on the contract means the market is effectively treating his advancement as a done deal. On Polymarket, buyers are holding USDC on Polygon inside conditional tokens, so the payout still depends on the official match outcome or on the event failing to produce a winner within the settlement rules.

That extreme price is not unusual when a match has already been completed or is widely expected to be resolved by the event feed rather than by opinion. Comparable tennis markets often stay near the finish line once schedules are set and both players are listed in first-round draws, particularly in ATP Masters 1000 events on hard courts, where the underlying contract usually tracks a single binary result rather than broader tournament form[1][2][3]. Fearnley, a 2001-born Briton, is listed around ATP No. 110, while Mannarino, 38, is listed around ATP No. 47, and the head-to-head record shown by preview sites is 0-0 or otherwise unsettled in publicly available listings, so the market’s current certainty is coming from resolution status, not a live trading balance between the players[1][2][4].

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the official tournament and data providers have already posted a completed result, because this market only pays out on the named player who advances, or falls back to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner. Coverage pages from Tennis.com and Sky Sports still frame the fixture as a scheduled first-round match in Montreal, but any late withdrawal, walkover classification, or score correction would matter more here than pre-match previews or projected win probabilities[3][6][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.