Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Geneva Open match at 0% YES on the Francisco Comesana side, with the contract sitting entirely on the Jaume Munar outcome unless the market is forced into a 50-50 resolution by cancellation, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days. For a user holding USDC on Polygon, that means the only live question is whether the ATP’s official result on the conditional tokens settles to Comesana advancing, Munar advancing, or a fallback if the match never produces a winner. The exchange is therefore trading the match-up itself, not abstract form lines.

That flat price looks consistent with the pre-match context from outside modelling rather than with a live in-play swing. Tennis Tonic had Munar as the initial odds pick at 1.61 against 2.31 for Comesana and projected a three-set win, while Dimers also put Munar ahead with a 58-59% win probability and noted a slight lean to over 22.5 games. The ATP’s own scores archive shows Munar won this round-of-16 meeting 6-4, 6-4, which is the relevant comparator for how these contracts ultimately clear when the official match result is straightforward.

The main catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: the ATP schedule, any court or weather delay in Geneva, and whether the match is completed within the seven-day settlement window. SofaScore listed the fixture for Court 1 at 10:55 UTC on 20 May, while the ATP scores centre and live feeds remain the key settlement references if there is any disruption or walkover. If the match is played to completion, the token follows the official advancing player; if it is abandoned or pushed past the deadline without a winner, the market can revert to the 50-50 rule.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.