Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Canas

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying Francisco Comesana is not expected to advance against Alejandro Moro Canas. The trade still settles through the usual on-chain structure: users hold **USDC** positions on **Polygon**, with the outcome mapped to conditional tokens that pay out on the match result, or to **50-50** if the match is never played or is left unresolved beyond the market’s delay rule.

On the tennis side, this is a Wimbledon qualifying match-up in which Comesana is the higher-ranked player, with Flashscore listing him at **ATP No. 88** against Moro Canas at **No. 233**.[2] TennisTemple also lists Comesana as the higher-ranked player and shows the pair in Wimbledon qualifying, which makes a 0% price notable because it runs against the basic ranking signal and suggests traders are either reacting to stale scheduling information or expecting a walkover/administrative outcome rather than a straightforward upset.[1][2] There is no ATP head-to-head record surfaced in the provided results, so there is little historical meeting data to anchor the price.[6]

For traders, the key catalysts are whether the match is actually played, whether the draw order changes, and whether either player withdraws before first ball. The listed start times vary across sources, with the match shown around **04:30 UTC**, **12:30**, or **8:00 am ET**, which is exactly the sort of scheduling ambiguity that can keep a market pinned near zero until the tournament confirms the court assignment and start time.[1][2][4][5] If play begins, Polymarket’s conditional-token logic should resolve on the winner; if not, the contract’s 50-50 fallback becomes the relevant mechanic rather than tennis form alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.