Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Raphael Collignon at 0% YES on the Geneva Open match against Casper Ruud, so the contract is effectively marked as a near-certain Ruud advance on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon. For Polymarket users, that means the contract is already reflecting the view that the Belgian has no realistic path unless the market is mispriced, the fixture changes, or the settlement terms are triggered by an abandonment rather than a completed result.

A 0% read should be treated cautiously rather than literally. In tennis, outright-leaning markets can sit at zero when the favourite is heavily favoured, but they can still reprice sharply if the draw, withdrawal status, or match timetable changes. Comparable ATP clay matches often move only once line-ups are confirmed and a player is officially active; if play begins and Ruud is later awarded the win through retirement, the contract should still settle to Ruud, whereas a complete cancellation or a delay beyond seven days would push it to 50-50 under the stated rules.

The main catalyst is whether the match is officially played in Geneva’s ATP 250 schedule, with any late injury or withdrawal announcement the obvious swing factor. The tournament is running the week before Roland Garros, and recent coverage from ATP Tour and live score boards such as ESPN has focused on Geneva results and daily scheduling, so traders should watch for order-of-play updates, draw changes, and any news on Ruud’s fitness or Collignon’s availability. If the fixture stays intact and starts on time, the current 0% price will mostly track whether the market expects a walkover, retirement, or a routine Ruud win.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.