Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo at **0% YES** on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, which means the contract is effectively treating a Collignon advance as vanishingly unlikely unless fresh information changes the board. For traders, the important detail is that the market resolves on who *advances*, not necessarily who wins in regulation, and if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the seven-day grace period, it resolves 50-50 instead of either side winning outright.

That 0% line sits within a live ATP/WTA grass-court week at Eastbourne, where schedules can move quickly and a single withdrawal or walkover can re-open a market that looked dead. The ATP lists the Lexus Eastbourne Open for 22–27 June 2026, and the LTA says play starts at 11:00 each day, so the practical risk for holders is less about broad tournament context and more about whether the specific men’s fixture survives the order of play and any weather or fitness disruptions.[3][4] If the match disappears from the day’s slate, the resolution mechanics matter more than the ranking gap.

Historically, near-zero tennis prices tend to appear when one player is either a clear favourite on paper or the match has not yet been formally confirmed into a playable slot, and those prices can still reset if the draw changes. Eastbourne’s published tournament information is the main live dependency here, alongside any late schedule updates from ATP or LTA channels and the live scoreboard feeds that confirm whether the match is actually underway.[1][5] For a Polymarket user, the key watchpoints are the official order of play, any pre-match withdrawal notices, and whether the contest starts before the settlement window closes.[2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.