National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract on Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante is pricing **0% YES** right now, so the market is treating Chan’s win as an extreme long shot in the on-chain USDC/Polygon venue rather than as a live coin-flip. The listed tennis feeds still frame this as a first-round National Bank Open match in Montreal on outdoor hard courts, and the available pre-match comparisons point to Tirante as the clear favourite: Tennis.com had Chan at 27% projected winner versus 73% for Tirante, while other pre-match listings showed Tirante around 1.34 in decimal odds and Chan around 3.45.[1][10][11]

That shape is consistent with the broader gap between the players’ profiles. Public player data in the match listings shows Chan around ATP 601 and Tirante around ATP 64, with no previous head-to-head meetings recorded between them.[4][5][14] In prediction markets, that sort of ranking and pricing mismatch often leaves very little room for a move unless there is a late withdrawal, a retirement, or a correction to the underlying match status. Because Polymarket settles via conditional tokens, the practical question is not just who is better on paper, but whether the match is actually played and completed under the contract terms.

For traders, the immediate catalysts are straightforward: official match start confirmation, any updated draw or order-of-play notice from the tournament, and any injury or withdrawal news before first serve. The National Bank Open’s own day-one recap explicitly listed Chan vs Tirante in the main draw, while live scoreboards and match pages show the fixture as scheduled for 3–4 August depending on time zone treatment.[13][6][8] If the match is postponed, cancelled, or left unfinished beyond the settlement window, the contract’s fallback rules matter more than the on-court winner, because that is what determines whether it resolves to the player name or to 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.