Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Wimbledon qualifying match between Alejandro Moro Canas and Harold Mayot, scheduled for 6:00 AM ET on 24 June 2026, has already concluded with Canas winning 2–0 in straight sets, securing a 6–3, 7–6 victory[1]. This result explains the current 100% YES price on Polymarket for the contract resolving to Canas, as the on-chain conditional tokens have already settled based on the completed play[3]. The market reflects the finality of the event rather than abstract probability, with USDC payouts on the Polygon network expected within an hour of official resolution[3].

Historically, similar qualification matches in 2024 and 2025 saw early-set dominance by higher-ranked players translate directly into final outcomes, with no comebacks in grass-court qualifiers where service holds are critical[8]. In cases where a player retires mid-match, markets resolve to fair price only if play cannot be unconditionally settled, but here the full match was completed, eliminating ambiguity[3]. The 100% price aligns with past precedents where decisive set wins in qualifying rounds led to immediate, unchallenged market settlements.

Traders should monitor the official ATP confirmation of Canas advancing to the next round and any schedule updates for the semi-final, which Flashscore lists as the next stage[2]. No new announcements are pending, as the match result is final, but traders must verify the settlement timestamp before the 2026-07-01 deadline to ensure timely payout[3]. The only dependency is the official tournament record confirming Canas as the winner, which is already public[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.