Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is showing this Geneva Open match contract at 0% YES, so the market is effectively pricing Edas Butvilas as having no live path to advance against Alexander Bublik right now. The contract settles via conditional tokens on Polygon and is backed by USDC, so the key question is not the pre-match headline but whether the named match is actually played, completed, or pushed outside the settlement window.

The market should be read against Butvilas’s recent Geneva trail rather than raw ATP ranking alone. He has already appeared in Geneva qualifying this week and, per ATP scoring pages, beat Alexandre Muller 7-5 7-6(4) after earlier qualifying matches in the same event. That sort of run can create scheduling and draw complications, but it also shows he has been on site and competing at this venue, which is the relevant comparison for a contract that resolves on advancement, not season-long form.

The main catalysts are still procedural: official Geneva draw updates, order-of-play postings, and any injury, retirement or withdrawal notices involving Bublik or Butvilas. Traders will also need to watch whether the match is actually staged within the seven-day settlement window, since any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that point forces a 50-50 outcome. ATP live-score and tournament schedule pages are the most direct sources if the fixture moves.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.