Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Arseneault faces Andres Martin tomorrow in the Granby Challenger, with the on-chain contract for Arseneault advancing currently priced at 25% YES on Polymarket. Traders holding USDC on Polygon are betting against the Canadian’s chances, as conditional tokens reflect a steep disadvantage for the home player despite the venue.

Historical data from the 2025 Granby event shows Andres Martin defeating Nicolas Arseneault in the Round of 32 with a 7-5, 6-2 scoreline, framing the current low probability as a rational continuation of that head-to-head trend [8]. While Arseneault holds a 53.66% career win rate across 82 matches, his recent loss to Henry Searle in Little Rock suggests vulnerability against higher-ranked opponents, reinforcing the market’s bearish stance [1][6].

Key catalysts include the official 10:00 AM ET start time tomorrow and any weather delays, which could trigger the 50-50 settlement clause if unresolved beyond seven days [2]. Traders should monitor the ATP Tour draw updates for any late cancellations or schedule shifts, as the market resolves to a tie if the match is not played at all [2]. With the settlement window closing in July 2026, liquidity remains tied to real-time tournament progress rather than abstract player rankings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.