Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market resolves to whichever firm owns the model with the highest Chatbot Arena rank on 30 June 2026, using the Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled. Today, Polymarket prices this contract at a mere 2% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting deep scepticism that the current leader will retain top status by the settlement window.

Historically, leaderboard dominance in this arena has been fleeting; models often surge and fall within months as new architectures emerge and user preferences shift. In the June 2026 snapshot, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 leads with a perfect 100/100 composite score across 357 models, yet past cycles show even top-ranked systems can be overtaken by unheralded entrants before year-end[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming model releases from major labs, scheduled Q3 2026 announcements, and any shifts in the LMSYS evaluation methodology. Recent coverage from UC Berkeley’s SkyLab highlights how community-driven benchmarking can rapidly alter rankings when new data is incorporated[6][8]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, mean positions adjust instantly to these catalysts, making timing critical for on-chain exposure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.