How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Strait of Hormuz transit-count contract at about 2% for the YES outcome, with traders funding positions in USDC on Polygon and receiving conditional tokens tied to IMF Portwatch’s reported totals. The market resolves on the published count of all transit calls from 11 May to 17 May inclusive, so the live price is effectively a view on whether traffic can stay in an unusually narrow band rather than on whether ships pass the chokepoint at all.

That low probability sits against a recent run of depressed throughput. USNI News reported on 1 May that commercial transits in the strait had fallen to their lowest level since the opening days of the U.S.-Israel offensive in Iran, while earlier March reporting showed only a handful of daily exits at points of acute disruption. For traders, the key comparison is not normal Gulf traffic, but whether the weekly Portwatch tally can recover enough to clear the contract’s relevant range after months of restricted movement and altered routing.

The main catalysts are operational rather than rhetorical: Portwatch publication timing, any shipping advisories from maritime security bodies, and whether insurers or operators change routing or verification procedures for tankers and other commercial vessels. Reuters-style headlines on Iranian inspection practices, AIS usage, or renewed incidents near the strait can move expectations quickly, but the market will settle only on the IMF Portwatch series for the full week. What matters is the final reported count, not informal traffic estimates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.